Water Management and Policy Implications of River Discharge Patterns: A Case Study of the Khabur River in Zakho (2004–2023)

Abstract

This study examined the water discharge in Zakho's Khabour River between 2004 and 2023 in Chalke area. Water from the river is used for industry, agriculture, and homes. The aim of this research is to evaluate long-term discharge changes and pinpoint the primary climatic and anthropogenic factors (precipitation variability and human water use) influencing river flow. The data of the area were obtained from the Water Resources Department in Zakho, a reliable local source. Daily, monthly, and annual discharge and precipitation values are included in the data. A moving average analysis shows that periods of high and low discharge alternate over the long term, supported by Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope trend tests. It was demonstrated, through statistical trend and correlation analysis, that increased water extraction for irrigation and urban growth over the past 20 years has likely resulted in a decrease in river discharge. Variations in river discharge are closely correlated with precipitation patterns in the area (r = 0.78). These findings provide insights for sustainable water management and policy planning in the Zakho city and are consistent with patterns reported in nearby semi-arid and Mediterranean river basins.